This article should get some of us more rational regarding the big hype about 2012, Planet X, and Doomsday... being reasonable is the hardest thing to do when overcome with extreme feelings of fear, despair, or even rapture. So open your mind to the idea that it could all be a spook, and we will all laugh about it on December 22, 2012. Otherwise, would you want to be the one to clean up the mess that Doomsday will leave behind?
Would you want to survive Doomsday?
The Mayans Never Predicted the Doomsday
Before continuing, it's worth emphasizing that this mesoamerican calendar (used by several cultures -- including the Maya -- in Central and South America before European colonization) does not predict an apocalypse. It never did, despite what the movie "2012" told us.
The Mayan civilization existed from 250-900 A.D. in the current geographical location of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, and some of Honduras. Archaeologists studying this fascinating culture have been able to decipher their many calendars. Still, their most extended period calendar- the "Long Count"- sets alarm bells off in the fertile minds of a few conspiracy theorists, doomsayers, and guys looking to make a fast buck.
So, where's the problem?
The Long Count was used by the Maya to document past and future events. Their other calendars needed longer to enter any date beyond 52 years. The 52-year calendar -- known as the "Calendar Round" -- was used as it spans a generation or the approximate lifetime of an individual.
Using the Calendar Round meant that events in a person's life could be chronicled over 52 years -- or 52 "Haab's," spanning 18,980 special days. But what if the Maya wanted to keep note of a historical event that occurred more than 52 years ago? Or mark a date more than 52 years into the future.
It's Just a Numerical Coincidence
Using remarkable ingenuity, the Maya created the "Long Count" calendar, a departure from the shorter calendars. The Long Count is a numerically predictable calendar, not based on archaic time measures.
Now, purely as a consequence of the Long Count's numerical value, many Mayan scholars agree that the calendar will "run out" after 5,126 years (or, at least, its first cycle does). The Mayans set this calendar to begin in 3114 B.C. (according to our modern Gregorian calendar). If the Long Count began in 3114 B.C. and it's calculated to continue for 5126 years, the "end date" will be -- you guessed it -- 2012 A.D. Further refinement sets the date to Dec. 21, the winter solstice for the Northern Hemisphere.
Correlating Calendars
A huge issue when studying ancient calendars comes when trying to correlate their time frames with our modern (Gregorian) calendar. After all, for archaeologists to work out when a big event is documented in the Mayan calendar (such as war, famine, or religious celebration), it must be translated into "our" years, months, and days.
As the Gregorian calendar began in 2010, we have a standard timeline for over two millennia of historical events. But to understand the events documented by the fallen culture, Mayan scholars needed to find significant events common in both the Gregorian and Long Count calendars so they could "correlate."
To do this, most Mayan scholars use a well-respected correlation factor called the "GMT constant." GMT stands for the initials of the last names of the archaeologists who calculated the constant: Joseph Goodman, Juan Martinez-Hernandez, and J. Eric S. Thompson.
But Gerardo Aldana of UC Santa Barbara is now questioning the validity of this correlation factor due to a possible misidentification of ancient astronomical events in a new book called "Calendars and Years II: Astronomy and Time in the Ancient and Medieval World."
The Maya were highly skilled astronomers who kept meticulous records of the night sky. They documented the phases of the moon, recorded eclipses, and even tracked the movement of Venus. Their records enabled them to predict future astronomical cycles with great accuracy. In fact, the Venus cycle was an important calendar for the Maya.
Venus or a Meteor?
Although GMT uses several sources of astronomical, archaeological, and historical evidence to correlate the Long Count with our modern calendar, Aldana has cast doubt on the accuracy of some astronomical evidence interpreted from ancient Mayan artifacts and colonial texts.
One of the key events described by Aldana is a battle date set by the ruler of Dos Pilas (a Maya site in the current geographical location of Guatemala). Ruler Balaj Chan K’awiil chose this date for the appearance of Chak Ek'. According to Johan Normark, a researcher at the Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies at Stockholm University, Chak Ek' "used to be believed to be Venus. Still, in another study, Aldana believes it is a [meteor]."
Add this to a mismatch of solar calendar dates between Mayan sites; the end date of Dec. 21, 2012, could be at least 60 days out.
Aldana presents several reasons why the GMT constant may not be reliable, and he's not the first to do so, but he does admit that it is widely accepted by most researchers. Therefore, much more work (such as supportive radiocarbon dating) must be done before his findings can be corroborated.
This is a fascinating area of work, but it is overshadowed by the inane ramblings of doomsday advocates who set their sights on the world ending on Dec. 21, 2012. Alas, even if this infamous Mayan calendar end date was proven inaccurate, doomsayers would ignore this fact.
After all, proving that the world isn't ending is bad for business if you have a doomsday book to sell.
- Analysis by Ian O'Neill Mon Oct 18, 2010, 01:31 PM ET
Comments
This is a very interesting topic, thanks for sharing...
Multi Blogging
Never read anything substantial to support Doomsday theory, it all seems hoopla to me too.
I know some people who believe this is going to actually be the Second Coming of Christ.
I have heard of some people who are digging caves and laying in big supplies of canned food and of open-pollinated seeds.
Myself, I don't know. Could be. But I've lived a long time, so I was around when the Latter Day Saints (aka Jehovah's Witness) followers said the world was going to end. I had a friend who was one and she said she didn't expect to live beyond the age of 35. She's 63 now.
I'm sure everyone remembers how people were taping their windows and doors shut and laying in big supplies of drinking water expecting something big to happen when the calendar rolled over into the year 2000.
I think it's wise to lay in supplies of drinking water, and food, but more for short-lived emergencies than a major thing.
The bottom line is that when your number's up, it's up. I'm a Christian and not afraid to die. I would think, though, that if anything horrible happened and there were lots of survivors, the ones who weren't prepared would kill the ones who were, and take their stuff.
Life's a crapshoot every day, not just in December, 2012. So live each day to the fullest as if it were your last.
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